I Want to Believe

182-231 vs. 138-172.

What quaint numbers. "How lovely and aesthetically pleasing" someone might think. But these numbers tell a sordid tale, a tale that when I tell it to you, dear reader, you are most likely going to say, "Grow up! There's no such thing as a conspiracy, you churl!" Not when I have this evidence. The Truth is Out There and much of it can be found at the NBA statistics page.

The above numbers are the numbers of free throws shot and made by the Lakers and the Jazz over the course of their six game series. The Lakers shot 182-231. The Jazz shot 138-172. Please note that the Lakers shot 59 free throws over the course of the series, an average of almost 10 more free throws per game. Note that the Lakers hit 44 more free throws in the series, an average of over 7 more points a game. This is pretty unbelievable. A recent post on an ESPN blog found that the home teams were shooting an average of 4.6 more free throws per game than then away team which seemed like a lot. But 10 more free throws a game?? That's incredible. Here's something even more interesting. The Jazz shot more free throws than the Lakers once in the series, when in Game 4 they outshot them by 20 free throws. Take away Game 4 and the Lakers averaged...16 more free throws a game! As the Lakers shot 79% on their FT in the series, this is an average of an additional 12.6 points a game. I should remind the readers that the Lakers' margins of victory in each of their four wins was less than 12 (11, 10, 7, and 3).





Now, what has been bandied about by the media ad nauseum is that the Jazz led the league in the regular season in fouls and FTs by their opponent i.e. the Jazz foul a lot, so a free throw disparity should be expected...However, the Jazz were second in the league in the average number of free throws taken per game, trailing only the Denver Nuggets (check ESPN stats if you don't believe me). The Lakers in the regular season averaged fewer free throws than the Jazz! To put it bluntly, the Jazz play tough interior basketball where they foul a lot and get fouled a lot. What happened in the series against the Lakers is that the Jazz got called for the fouls but never got to the free throw line.


In basketball, it's typically understood that the home team usually is favored by the refs, which is why teams can have such a huge home court advantage. (I figure that this is because the refs love to make a dramatic call in favor of the home team to hear the huge crowds roar. Must be a heady experience.) Thus, I am somewhat shocked when I find that in two of their three home games, the Jazz shot fewer free throws and not just a couple fewer. An average of 12.5 fewer free throws a game. I hope I'm making myself perfectly clear.





So, what's the deal? Wha' happened? Somewhere between games 4 and 5 of the Rockets series, the Rockets submitted a DVD to the league offices complaining about the Jazz fouling Tracy McGrady in the first four games of the series. Never mind that the Rockets shot more free throws in the first two games of the series (which were in Houston) and the Jazz shot more free throws in the next two games (which were in Utah). After the first four games, the free throw difference was +2 for Utah. So, pretty even. The next game, at Houston, the Jazz shot four more free throws. Game 6, after the DVDs had been looked at by the league, Houston shot 11 more free throws despite getting blown out. And then the trend continued into the Lakers series.





Conspiracy point #1: The NBA ordered a crackdown on the Jazz





Then the Jazz played the Lakers, who were the popular pick to go to the Finals. David Stern met with the referees prior to Game 2 and prior to giving Kobe Bryant the MVP. In the first quarter of game 2, the Lakers shot 14 more free throws than the Jazz and went on to shoot 27 more in the game.





Conspiracy point #2: David Stern wants the Lakers to win the Western Conference.





My thesis: Pretty simple. The League would like a Lakers-Celtics Finals. They believe that a Lakers-Celtics Finals will blow ratings through the roof. They do not want a Utah-Detroit or San Antonio-Detroit matchup. After all, in 2005, the SA-Detroit Finals had the lowest Finals ratings ever. And last year's ratings were wretched as well. Pretty much, they need LA in. And, it's pretty easy to pull off. In no other sport do the refs hold such sway. In football, you might get called for holding more often than the other guy, or PI every once in a while, but in basketball, the refs can manipulate each play down the court and no one thinks twice. At the point where I was really coming back to be a basketball fan, I've become jaded. The League is no different than it was in 1998 with the Jordan push-off. And this is why football is better, because in football, sometimes the Giants actually beat the Patriots.

P.S. The new X-Files movie is coming out this summer. I am so pumped...